浙商银行(2016.HK)首次覆盖报告市场机制活资产质量优
机构：国泰君安
本报告导读：
浙商银行与A股股份行相比，机制更灵活、ROE更高且资产质量优异，首次覆盖给予浙商银行2019年0.90倍PB，目标价5.30港元，增持评级。
摘要：
投资建议：浙商银行是ROE高于同业且资产质量优异的小型股份行，预计2019-2021年净利润增速为10.27%/10.37%/10.00%，对应EPS0.68/0.75/0.82元，BVPS5.27/5.78/6.34元，现价对应19/20/21年5.22/4.73/4.30倍PE，0.67/0.61/0.56倍PB。首次覆盖给予浙商银行2019年0.90倍PB，目标价5.30港元，增持评级，现价空间34%。
核心优势：市场机制灵活，资产质量优良
1.市场机制灵活，增长速度较快。浙商银行机制灵活，把握了非标投资和同业负债发展的黄金期，2014-2016年期间，表内非标、债券投资和贷款轮番高速增长，三年间总资产增速分别高达37%、54%和31%，在股份行中的规模排位也因此实现跨越式提升。监管收紧后，浙商银行也调整迅速，SPV占比由15年42%的高点，压降至18年底的13%。
2.盈利强于同业，杠杆主要贡献。ROE始终高于股份行平均，主要源于投资类资产占比高和低资本充足率带来的高杠杆。但其ROA低于股份行平均，劣势来自：①高负债成本拖累净息差；②手续费净收入占营收比重始终低于股份行平均，且2018年由于理财收入较17年下降75%，使整体手续费净收入占营收比重进一步下降13pc至11%。
3.资产质量优异，风险小于预期。2018年末不良率1.20%，逾期率1.23%，皆为股份行中最低，存量资产质量为同业最佳行列。2018年，浙商银行被媒体曝光多起风险事件，但实际影响远小于市场预期，2018年加回核销的不良生成率为0.68%，股份行中仅高于招商银行5bp。
4.积极变化显现，业绩预将回升。18A营收较17A大幅+12.1pc至13.9%，主要源于资产收益率的提升和其他非息收入加速增长。预计未来业绩增速将提升：①未来规模增速将高于18年7%的低位，归因于大力压降SPV的时期已过，且如果回A顺利将补充核心一级资本，解除扩张限制；②手续费收入将恢复增长，主要受益于18年低基数。
风险提示：宏观经济失速下行导致信用风险上升。
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