港铁公司(0066.HK)各项业务经营稳健拨备是一次性影响
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
我们的观点：短期公司股价承压，但随着香港恢复稳定，公司将持续为市民提供准时、安全的出行服务，对公司经营的影响将会慢慢消除。沙中线和英国South Western项目计提拨备导致一次性损失，但对公司现金流的影响并不大，也不会影响公司渐进的派息政策。高速铁路的开通成为公司新的增长点，澳门项目也预计年底能正式投入运营。目前公司股价对应2018年18XPE，股息收益率达到2.4%，建议投资者关注。
中期业绩符合预期：截止2019年中期，港铁公司营业收入282.72亿港元，同比增7.2%，其中香港客运业务、车站商务、物业租赁及管理业务、中国内地及国际业务的营业收入占比分别为38%，13%，9%和37%。公司经常性业务的利润为26.65亿元，同比降低40.6%，基本业务（包含香港物业开发业务）的利润为34.4亿元，同比降低26%，利润同比下降的主要原因是因为计提了沙中线和英国西南部铁路的拨备，如果撇除计提拨备，公司的经常性和基本业务利润的同比增速分别为13.8%和26.4%。公司中期继续保持每股派息0.25港元，公司中期业绩符合预期。
香港客运业务表现出色：截止2019年中期，公司香港客运服务的总乘客量达到10.224亿人，同比上升2.5%；营业收入为106.9亿港元，同比增长14.6%，本地铁路业务和机场快线营收达到3%的增长，过境服务由于受到高铁开通分流略有下滑，本地铁路业务的平均票价略微上升1.7%至8.14港元。高铁收入11.4亿元（去年同期是0），是期内公司收入增长的主要来源，公司持续优化高铁的服务，长途列车班次由13对增至17对，目的地数从44个增至58个。
保持稳定派息：公司的净负债率较2018年底的18.1%进一步降至中期的14.4%，利息覆盖倍数达到13.4倍。总有息负债为371.5亿港元，平均借贷成本仅2.8%。公司保持稳定派息，中期继续派息0.25港仙，对于全年来说，公司将机修保持渐进式的派息政策。风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓、客流量增长不急预期、工程进展不及预期、新业务拓展不及预期、国际业务亏损
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