Lyft(LYFT.O)2019Q2共享汽车增速放缓盈利能力持续改善
机构:中信证券
核心观点
Lyft为美国共享出行第二大公司,市场份额39%。2019Q2,Lyft收入8.7亿美元,non-GAAP净亏损2.0亿美元,均优于市场预期。伴随北美共享汽车行业趋于成熟、竞争趋于理性,公司用户数及收入增速放缓,盈利能力持续改善。公司积极拓展自行车、滑板车、自动驾驶等多项业务,共享出行生态进展值得期待。
▍业绩:收入增速放缓,盈利能力提升。公司2019Q2收入8.7亿美元(+72%),优于一致预期(8.1亿美元)。non-GAAP净亏损2亿美元(2019Q1净亏损2.1亿美元),优于一致预期(净亏损3亿美元)。当季non-GAAP毛利率46%(同比+4pcts),主要受益于汽车保险费用的占比降低。EBITDA亏损2亿美元。当季销售费用率21%,同比-14pcts,其中用户激励成本占收入的比例相比2019Q1下降近40%,反映共享出行市场进入相对成熟期,补贴竞争趋向理性。
▍用户:活跃用户数增速放缓,单用户收入有望受益于提价。公司Q2活跃用户数2,181万(+41%),增速较2019Q1(+46%)、2018Q2(+65%)持续下滑。公司预计Q3活跃用户数有望在2230~2240万(+28%~+29%)。活跃用户数增速持续放缓,或反映北美出行市场趋于饱和。2019Q2每活跃用户贡献收入39.77美元(+22%),增速较2019Q1(+34%)、2018Q2(+29%)下滑。受益于6月底推出的提价政策,公司预计2019Q3单用户收入将同比+23%,收入增速有望小幅反弹。
▍增量:自行车、滑板车、自动驾驶,搭建共享出行生态。Lyft自行车已进入9个城市,滑板车已投放到16个城市。公司在电话会中披露,使用Lyft自行车或滑板车的用户中,有25%从未使用过Lyft汽车服务。汽车、自行车、滑板车有望共同构建共享出行生态,绑定更多用户。此外,Lyft自动驾驶出租车已经在凤凰城进行路测,目前还需人类安全员在车上监控。公司近期推出Fast Match服务,在机场等客流量大的场所提供Lyft等候区,以便乘客快速乘车;目前此服务已入驻3个机场。公司还与迪士尼、AEG场馆、希尔顿酒店等知名企业合作,以更大规模覆盖客户,提供优质乘车服务。
▍指引:全年业绩指引上调,盈利预期继续改善。公司预计2019Q3营收9亿~9.15亿美元(+54%~56%);预计2019全年将实现营业收入34.7亿-35亿美元,同比上升61%-62%,相比一季报给出的全年业绩指引上调2亿美元。公司预计2019 Q3 EBITDA亏损1.9亿-2.1亿美元,全年EBITDA亏损8.5亿-8.75亿美元,低于2018年EBITDA亏损(9.4亿美元),相比2019Q1预期收窄3亿美元,反映公司盈利能力改善。
▍风险因素:竞争加剧导致市场份额波动的风险;法规政策限制共享出行业务的风险;自动驾驶进展不达预期的风险。
▍投资策略:我们长期看好自动驾驶及共享出行行业。Lyft为美国共享出行第二大公司,市场份额39%。当前公司主营打车业务增速放缓,盈利能力持续改善;此外亦积极拓展自行车、滑板车、自动驾驶等多项业务,共享出行生态进展值得期待。
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