中国移动(0941.HK)利润下滑5G建设开始提速
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
2019年H1业绩情况：中国移动H1经营收入达到3894亿元（人民币，下同）（-0.6%）；其中通信服务3514亿元（-1.3%，占比90.2%）；EBITDA为1511亿元（+3.6%）；EBITDA占通信服务收入比为43.0%（+2.0pcts）；归母净利润560.6亿元(-14.6%)。董事会建议向股东派发末期股息每股1.527港元，派息率49%。
移动用户9.35亿户，有线宽带用户1.75亿户，人口红利逐渐消失，移动及宽带ARPU持续下滑。2019H1，公司移动用户净增998万，达到9.35亿户，其中4G用户7.34亿户，渗透率达到78.5%；有线宽带用户净增1,820万，达到1.75亿。由于人口红利逐减消失，行业同质竞争激烈，以及国家“提速降费”政策的继续推行，公司移动用户月ARPU52.2元（-10.2%），有线宽带月ARPU32.9元（-6%）。
“稳中求进”，力争下半年尽快实现收入正增长，同时利润降幅收窄。公司以个人移动市场为基础（2517亿，占比71.6%），不断拓展政企市场和新业务市场，收入结构进一步优化。公司政企客户数达到792万家（+18.1%），收入441亿（+15.7%，占比12.5%）；新业务收入291亿（+4.1%，占比8.3%）。下半年公司将通过进一步优化收入结构，以及成本管控，力争尽快实现收入正增长以及减少利润降幅。
2019年资本开支不超过1660亿元，5G资本开支240亿元，在50个城市建设超5万座5G基站。2019H1资本开支852亿（+7.2%），公司预计全年资本开支不超过1660亿（-0.7%），其中5G资本开支240亿高于年初公司预计的170亿元。此外，基于5G公司将继续拓展其他业务空间，以获得新的增长动能，实现转型。
投资建议：上半年公司净利润下滑，5G建设投入加大，公司目前现金流较为充足（1H自由现金流量409.8亿），可以保证5G正常建设。此外，公司2019年将建5万座5G基站，高于另外两家。我们认为公司在5G时期具有先发优势，未来或将获得新增长动能，建议投资者持续关注。
风险提示：行业竞争加剧，导致用户ARPU下降；国家继续推行“提速降费”，导致产品价格下降；5G建设资本开支加大，公司利润下降。
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