《大行报告》美银美林降恒大(03333.HK)目标价至25.4元估值吸引重申「买入」评级
美银美林发表研究报告,指出在中国恒大(03333.HK)发出上半年业绩的盈利预警後,将其盈利预测下调,2019至2021财年的核心盈利预测分别下调17%至20%,并将其目标价调低18%,由30.9元降至25.4元。该行预期,2019财年的核心盈利按年下跌10%,由於估值吸引及高股息率(2018财年分派料相当於逾7%股息率,预期年底宣布),重申其「买入」投资评级。另外,预期上半年的净负债比率将与去年底相似(即152%),因为新能源汽车的投资支出,抵销了土地并购减少的影响。
该行称,恒大发盈警料主因去年上半年收入高基数所拖累,由於土地成本仍低,料毛利率并未有恶化。美银美林表示,今年首七个月,公司的合同销售按年下跌7%至3,220亿元人民币,合约销售均价下跌5%至每平方米9,002元人民币。目前公司已完成全年销售目标的54%。
美银美林表示,由於去年下半年比较基数大幅放缓,该行预期恒大2019财年的合同销售将有所增长,全年目标仍然可以实现。
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