网易(NTES.O)营收稳健增长提效控费改善盈利维持“买入”评级目标价326美元
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：326 美元
核心观点：
营收保持稳健增长，提效控费改善盈利。19Q2单季度实现营业收入187.69亿元，同比增长15.26%，环比小幅增长2.25%；总体毛利率43.29%，同比减少1.2pct，环比减少0.78pct。分业务来看，游戏、电商毛利率总体平稳，广告毛利率同比大幅下滑11.48pct至55.5%，新业务毛利率7个季度来首次转正至1.4%。
销售费用、管理费用率均有明显回落。由于网易从18Q4开始对各事业部门的组织架构持续优化，聚焦核心主业发展，“关停并转”部分缺乏盈利前景的项目，公司营业开支得到了较好的控制，2019Q2产生的管理费用为8.1亿元，同比增长12.37%，管理费用率4.32%，同比减少0.11pct，环比减少0.15pct。由于游戏开发进度和版号原因，今年上半年新游戏数量较少，去年同期合计推出18款新游戏（包括楚留香、第五人格、流星蝴蝶剑等），导致推广投入同比减少；另一方面，由于电商业务收入增速下滑导致获客费用减少，物流系统优化平抑运输和装卸成本增长。最终，2019Q2销售费用为17.67亿元，同比下滑22.3%，销售费用率同比减少4.54pct至9.42pct。
旗舰游戏韧性强劲，游戏类型全面丰富。虽然游戏业务在上半年缺乏头部新品，但是网易旗舰产品在激烈市场竞争中仍能保持行业领先地位，实现营收增速跑赢大盘，证明公司具有卓越运营能力。另外，在新品研发层面，1）以MMORPG为根基，发力FPS游戏品类，掘金新红利；2)在经典游戏IP上进行玩法创新，如阴阳师，逆水寒，倩女幽魂等优质IP；3）“走出去，引进来”并行不悖，完成优质产品的海外发行，同时与海外知名IP开发商合作，如KONAMI、宝可梦、漫威娱乐等，以联合开发或者代理形式获得优质游戏产品。网易目前储备游戏超过30款，包括多款重磅自研游戏将于19Q4和明年发行，手游收入有望提速。
投资建议：基于上半年网易在电商和新业务上成本费用控制成效，我们下调公司19~21年收入增速至15.3%，19%和17.4%，上调19~21年GAAP-归母净利润至93.8、104.2和125.6亿元，对应PE分别为20.6x/18.6x/15.4x，根据SOTP算得每股合理价值为326美元/ADS，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：无法获得游戏版号，电商增速不及预期，版权费用持续增长。
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