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吉利汽车(175.HK)7月销量降幅收窄产品结构持续改善维持“增持”评级目标价13.0港元
格隆汇 08-09 17:13

机构:西部证券

评级:增持

目标价:13.0港元

●核心结论

公司7月共销售9.1万台汽车,同比下滑24%,降幅较6月收窄5ppt。1-7月公司累计销售74.3万台车,同比下滑16%,达到我们全年预估销量的55%。

新车方面,星越销量攀升至约3000台,嘉际在3500台左右,符合我们预期。根据我们终端调研,公司在7月回收了商务政策,终端折扣小幅收窄,保价格基调依然明确。

领克品牌终端销量回暖,品牌形象提升。我们测算领克品牌上半年渠道库存累计下滑约0.8万台,截至7月底经销商库存系数普遍在1.5以内的健康水平。并且5-6月国六车切换期间,领克品牌促销力度小于其他品牌。分区域看,领克品牌上半年销量中一二线城市占比约65%,高于同业。8月2日,领克首款性能车领克03+上市,售价区间为18.58-22.88万元,价格带进一步上移。

产品结构持续改善,维持“增持”评级。下半年公司即将上市的博越Pro(预售价格9.88-15.68万元)、VF12、SX12和领克05定位高于现有产品,下半年将进一步提振销量、改善产品结构。我们维持2019/2020年净利润预估94/120亿元,维持13.0港元的目标价,基于DCF模型,隐含2019/2020年11倍/9倍市盈率,重申“增持”评级。

风险提示:新产品销售不及预期、国六切换进度不及预期、车市价格战加剧。

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