野村调整水泥股目标价长线选润泥(1313.HK)及安徽海螺(0914.HK)
野村发表报告指,根据中国国家统计局数据,今年上半年内地水泥生产按年上升6.8%。主要受基础建设和房地产投资提速所推动,因中国政府继续使用此两项工具稳定经济增长。分区域而言,华北及东北地区为表现最好的两个区域,上半年的水泥付运量分别按年增加27%及24%,华东地区仅录得7%的付运量增长。至于华南地区因天气情况不利,上半年的付运量按年下跌4%。
野村表示,虽然最近的政治局会议显示北京当局对房地产行业的规管更为强硬,但该行的经济团队相信北京当局不能承受停止宽松,有关的政策放松及刺激力度有可能在今年第四季再次提升。该行相信水泥需求在下半年将会维持稳定,因此上调对内地水泥需求今明两年的增长预测,由原来的预期每年下跌7%,上调至分别增长5%及3%。
另外,虽然中国政府的宽松/刺激政策和减产措施,可使今明两年的水泥需求前景稳定,但该行亦忧虑若所有刺激措施不再有效,水泥行业的长远情况。野村调整对中资水泥股的目标价,其中华润水泥(1313.HK)
目标价由9.8港元降至9.5港元,评级维持“
买入
”;安徽海螺(0914.HK)
目标价由53.7港元降至53港元,评级维持“
买入
”;中国建材(3323.HK)
目标价由6港元升至6.6港元,评级维持“
中性
”。该行建议长线选择具质素的股份,包括安徽海螺及华润水泥,相信两企在价格竞争时期可有防守性,而且有较短的应收期、较低的负债及较高股息收益率。
野村对中资水泥股最新评级及目标价如下:
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