里昂升高鑫零售(6808.HK)目标价至5.9港元评级“沽售”
里昂发表的报告指,高鑫零售(06808.HK)上半年业绩好坏参半,当中「淘鲜达」业务盈利能力、成本管控及租金收入均属正面,将相关业务预测由亏损2亿元人民币(下同)调整至赚5,000万元,而其成本管控程度亦好过该行预期,单是上半年与「欧尚」相关的成本已节省达1亿元,早前预期为全年节省1亿元。该行下调了公司的销售预测,但将2019至2021年盈利预测上调8%至15%,主要考虑到成本管控见效及O2O盈利能力等,目标价由5港元升至5.9港元,重申“沽售”评级。

该行指出,虽然期内食品通胀以及「淘鲜达」表现有所带动,惟同店销售仍跌1.8%,反映线下流量面对的压力较预期大,虽然「欧尚」短期属成本管控的主要来源,但线下经营去杠杆或会导致同店销售呈高单位数跌幅。而其他值得留意的地方则包括现金流弱势、其他收入势头较弱以及关店带来的风险等。
中期而言,里昂对「淘鲜达」的发展仍有担忧,怕行内新鲜食品转向线上的趋势加快是受「银弹」带动,而在线下层面公司亦面对同店销售跌势加快等的影响,线上层面「淘鲜达」考虑到其他同业均策略性投资新鲜食品O2O市场,而未能加价及或收取运费。
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