信义光能(00968.HK)双面双玻趋势明确加快扩产推动业绩增长提速维持“买入”评级目标价5.90港元
机构：国金证券
评级：买入
目标价：5.90港元
事件
公司8月7日发布2019年度中期业绩，实现收入39.97亿港元，同比下滑4.3%，归母净利润9.53亿港元，同比下滑21.5%，基本符合市场预期。
评论
玻璃跌价、天气恶劣致业绩同比下滑主因，玻璃生产成本下降和销量增长部分对冲：2019H1光伏玻璃ASP同比下跌约10%，然而公司玻璃业务毛利率同比仅下降6pct，同时实现销量增长13.6%，我们判断主要源自2018年底投产的马来西亚新产线以及产品结构优化的贡献；同时Q1华中地区天气恶劣影响令公司光伏电站利用小时数同比小幅下降；此外信义能源的分拆上市，虽然短期因增加少数股东损益对公司归母净利润产生一定负面影响，但大幅改善了公司财务状况，同时也有利于公司电站业务长期增长。
扩产提速+原材料布局，巩固规模及成本水平的绝对龙头地位：公司计划2020年在广西和安徽分别各投产两条1000吨产线，同时计划在广西收购一座硅砂矿且预计明年初即可投入运营，以上产线及原材料布局在大幅提升公司产能、确保市占率稳步提升的同时，我们预计还将对公司光伏玻璃的平均生产成本下降产生显著贡献，未来两年公司龙头地位和成本优势将得到进一步巩固。此外，根据对行业整体扩产节奏及需求的测算，我们预计2020年玻璃供需仍然紧平衡，价格有望维持相对高位。
双面双玻趋势越发明确，光伏玻璃需求增长步入快车道：因今年国内项目建设启动较晚、海外市场产品选型切换周期长、及公司自身产线调整等原因，公司上半年薄玻璃出货占比提升不明显，但我们同时也观察到，部分龙头组件企业上半年双玻组件出货比例、以及近期国电投组件集中招标中双玻采购比例均已高达3成，同时今年6月美国宣布豁免双面组件201关税（详见6月13日点评报告），双面双玻渗透率提升趋势明确。
盈利调整与投资建议：
我们调整公司2019~21E年归母净利润预测至24.2、31.6、40.9亿港元，较前次预测分别-5%、+4%、+16%，以体现：1）信义能源分拆对公司三年业绩预测的负面影响（少数股东损益增加）以及2）公司光伏玻璃扩产提速对2020~21年业绩预测的正面影响，对应EPS分别为0.30，0.39，0.51港元，三年复合增速30%，上调目标价至5.90港元（+19%），对应15倍2020PE，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：光伏玻璃需求增长不及预期；公司产能建设进度不及预期。
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