时代中国控股(01233.HK)城市更新项目稳步推进
机构：国泰君安
时代中国(01233.HK)2019年1-6月，营业收入为人民币159.43元，同比增长52.2%；利润为人民币17.00亿元，同比增长49.7%；公司股东应占利润为人民币15.94亿元，相比2018年同期增幅为34.6%；公司股东应占核心净利润为人民币17.01亿元，同比增长43.8%；毛利率及公司股东应占核心净利率分别为32.5%及10.7%；每股应占核心净利达人民币0.91元，同比增长40%。
城市更新项目持续转化，土储满足3-5年开发。2019年上半年，时代中国总土地储备为2,307.55万平米，总土储货值约4,000亿元(权益比为75-80%)，满足未来3-5年发展需要。目前土储大湾区占比为62.6%，其中广佛占比为28.2%，平均土地成本为3,541元/平方米，约占2019年上半年销售均价的23%，土储成本低廉。2019年上半年成功完成4个旧改项目，预计总建面达150.7万平米，总货值约319亿元，城市更新业务上半年股东应占核心净利达1.72亿元，预计全年在8亿元左右(同比增长约10%)。
评级提升有助于未来融资成本的下降。2019年3月时代中国获标普提升信贷评级至BB-，5月中诚信以及联合信用评级提升至AAA。2019年上半年，时代中国净负债率为70.8%，借贷成本达7.55%，现金余额257.8亿元，现金短债比为2.6倍，财务较为稳健。未来随着评级的提升，融资成本有望进一步下降。
全年销售目标完成确定性高。时代中国1-7月累计合同销售达368亿元，同比增长18.5%。全年可售货值为1,300亿元，其中下半年约700亿元，50%去化率即可完成全年目标(同比增长24%)，公司目标未来销售保持20%-30%增速，20年有望冲击千亿销售规模。目前，时代中国已售未结约为500亿元(权益占比约75%)，下半年预计结转金额在200亿元以上，预计毛利率水平在26%以上。
估值上，彭博市场预计19/20年EPS为2.75/3.46人民币，8月6日收市价对应19/20年预测市盈率为4.08/3.25倍。近期市场预计每股NAV区间为20.75港元-30港元，NAV折让区间为20%-40%。彭博市场平均目标价为18.07港元，短期建议以15港元作为交易参考，潜在上升空间约为20%。
风险：商品房销售疲弱，城市更新项目转化进度不及预期，区域政策调控加码，经济下滑等。
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