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统一企业中国(00220.HK)净利好于预期但销售增长可能失速维持“中性”评级目标价8.30港元
格隆汇 08-09 08:43

机构:国泰君安

评级:中性

目标价:8.30港元

统一2019年上半年业绩喜忧参半,但盈利显著好于市场及我们预期。统一2019年上半年收入同比上升2.2%至人民币114.70亿元,其中饮品和方便面销售同比分别上升0.6%和2.8%,增速下降明显。饮品销售中唯一的亮点为奶茶,其同比上升14.3%。虽然统一中低端方便面仍受到激烈市场竞争的影响,但其汤达人维持快速增长。由于更低的原材料价格、增值税的降低和产品组合的改善,公司2019年上半年毛利率同比提升3.1个百分点至36.6%。受益于毛利率的提升,统一2019年上半年净利同比大幅上升39.6%至人民币9.97亿元。其2019年第二季度净利同比上升34.9%,显著高于市场预期。

?销售增长可能失速。公司瓶装水和小茗同学销售都遇到显著下滑,且冰红茶和冰绿茶同比持平。除了汤达人之外,公司其他方便面品牌销售都有所下降。统一在一、二线城市推出了一些精致新品,比如“果重奏”、“茶瞬鲜”以及“自嗨锅”,但他们的销售规模有限,并不能弥补老品的倒退。奶茶和汤达人成为了主要的增长动力,但我们较为担心奶茶增长的持续性。

?因为更好的盈利预测,我们上调目标价至8.30港元。鉴于激烈的市场竞争,我们预计统一销售将艰难增长。而且今年强劲的盈利能力复苏主要来自更低的原材料价格和增值税降低,其可能不会在明年重现。因此我们维持“中性”评级但上调目标价至8.30港元,相当于22.6倍、21.8倍和20.6倍2019年、2020年和2021年市盈率。

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