吉利汽车(00175.HK)平淡7月符合预期继续谨慎控制库存维持“强推”评级目标价15.1港元
机构：华创证券
评级：强推
目标价：15.1港元
事项：
吉利公布7月批发销量，全月9.1万辆，同比-24%、环比+1%。
评论：
批发符合预期。公司近期销量同比增速弱于行业，5-7月为-27%、-29%、-24%，行业为-17%、-7%、-8%（预计），弱于行业主要在于去年同期吉利处于加库存过程，抬高基数。公司本月出口0.4万辆，同比+59%、环比-36%，环比下降主要在于出口马来西亚宝腾的博越临近限额，估计其出口量环比有所下降。剔除出口，内销7月同比-26%。
当月零售平淡，预计渠道库存绝对值环比略增。我们预计吉利7月上险7-9万辆，按8万辆对应同比-23%环比-41%。对应渠道库存变动+1.7万至-0.3万辆，库存系数+1.2至+0.5个月达到1.4-2.1个月。值得关注的是，吉利7月以及8月厂家促销折扣全面收回、政策松绑，延续了2季度以来的渠道管理政策取向。对销量虽有一定影响，但拉长周期来看能够维护品牌力，为后期中高端车型进一步发展做铺垫，以维护发展质量。
具体车型批发以环比持平为主。环比增加的有帝豪GS0.6万辆环比+50%，星越0.3万辆环比+25%，领克030.3万辆环比+45%。新车型方面，缤越表现依然较好，当月批售1.1万辆，环比持平；缤瑞受合资紧凑轿车挤压，当月0.5万辆，环比持平；嘉际0.3万环比-5%；几何A1,076辆环比-38%；星越0.3万辆，环比+25%。领克三款车型合计销售0.9万辆，环比持平。领克CEOAlainVisser近期表示2Q20开始会在中国生产领克01出口欧洲，领克对2021年的销量计划为50万辆。
投资建议：吉利作为自主龙头，国内份额、中高端车型、海外市场有充足成长空间，随汽车周期性回暖带来配置价值，近期港股调整带来安全边际。我们维持预计公司19-20年销量143万、188万辆，同比-4%、+31%，净利100亿、152亿元人民币，同比-20%、+52%，取1港币兑0.89元人民币，对应19PE8.8倍，19PB5.8倍，位于3年以来底部区域，维持目标价15.1港元，维持“强推”评级。
风险提示：国内宏观经济不及预期、乘用车需求回暖不及预期、领克销量回暖不及预期、新车型销量爬坡不及预期。
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