全球经贸及地缘问题再现黄金避险需求快速增温
作者：廖恩平
七月下旬以来，鲍里斯·约翰逊当选英国首相并着手加速脱欧准备、伊朗在波斯湾扣押多艘油轮、美中争端越演越烈等风险事件下，使得投资人对于整体投资环境的风险意识越趋升高，资金有自较高风险的资产类别如指数、商品撤出，转而投入黄金、日元等避险品种的迹象。
市场如愿在7月31日FOMC会议后的声明中确定美联储将降息25bps，作为“周期中”调整以预防美国经济陷入衰退。鲍威尔在会后声明中强调，此次降息并非新周期的开端，一度使黄金价格失望下挫。但在美联储宣布降息后的隔日，由于川普发文警告将对剩余3,000亿商品加征10%关税，引发市场对手机、计算机等终端电子消费冲击的担忧，助长港交所黄金期货价格突破47美元关卡。川普推文发布后，人民币迅速破7，来到10年的低点，随即美财政部的争议举动加剧了市场的忧虑情绪，德、日等进出口受影响较大的国家股市一度大跌。
与此同时，市场转向寻求美联储在9月会议任何与降息有关的蛛丝马迹。CME美联储观察工具显示，再降息一次的机率自关税推文前约50%，至近期皆维持在70%之上，且回顾过去历史，美联储的利率政策大部分都会与市场预期相符，对于降息的预期，也使抗通胀的需求持续增温。
在过去的文章中，我们介绍了香港交易所黄金期货在市场有抗通胀及避险需求时的配置功能，及香港交易所（HKEX）美元黄金期货、纽约商品交易所的商品交易部（COMEX／NYMEX）黄金期货以及上海期货交易所（SHFE）黄金期货，因合约价值、参与者结构，及价格形成机制等差异，经过价值换算后，根据其价差波动形成的价差套利空间。
而当前多项因素共同作用下，不同交易所的黄金期货合约有了更多的操作空间，尤其当市场情绪波动时，不同市场的黄金期货间瞬间反映出落差的机会增加，或为价差套利创造条件。
港交所黄金期货另一项特色是没有涨跌幅限制，当市场出现重大事件时，能迅速反应波动。当市场有较大的避险需求时，不同交易所的黄金期货，价格变动可能受到涨跌幅制约而出现不一致的现象。所以，利用港交所黄金期货与其他交易所黄金期货交易制度的差异，或能发现更多价差交易机会。
黄金期货合约比较表
注1：资料来源为各交易所网站，数据时间为2019年8月7日
注2：纽约商品交易所黄金期货触及±5%上下限2分钟后，放宽无涨跌幅限制
注3：交易所可根据市场风险状况调整涨跌停板幅度
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