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中金人民币贬值对内房盈利影响有限推荐龙湖(0960.HK)润地(1109.HK)
格隆汇 08-07 17:26

中金发表报告预期,人民币贬值对内房股盈利影响有限,认为投资者应重视地产股中期配置,H股推荐龙湖集团(0960.HK)、华润置地(1109.HK)、中国海外发展(0688.HK)等,而A股则推荐保利地产(600048.SH)、金地集团(600383.SH)及中南建设(000961.SZ)。

报告指出,内房股短期内或因融资环境偏紧、按揭利率边际上行、市场对人民币贬值的忧虑等因素而受压,但相信内房企业将可通过灵活使用境内外融资渠道控制汇率风险敞口,亦可利用对冲手段,减低人民币贬值对房企盈利的影响。

报告预测,在不对冲汇率风险的假设下,如果人民币贬值1%,将对万科A(000002.SZ)今年净利润产生的现金影响为-0.5%,而对世茂房地产(0813.HK)和中国海外发展今年核心净利润产生的现金影响为-1.5%和-0.3%。现金影响主要来自当期外币债务利息结算和用人民币偿付到期外币债务,其中后者为主要影响,但在实际操作中,房企往往采用海外借新还旧或以外币现金直接偿付的方式,应对到期外币债务。

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