宇华教育(06169.HK)并购之下内生增长依旧出色维持“买入”评级目标价9.16港元
机构：申万宏源
评级：买入
目标价：9.16港元
我们预计得益于入学人数增长和运营能力优化，宇华教育未来三年公司利润以29.3%的复合增速稳健增长。我们维持19至22财年每股收益为人民币0.22元/0.31元/0.37元的预测。我们维持目标价9.16港元，相当于19财年26.9倍PE，对应涨幅141%，我们维持买入评级。
入学人数增长。我们预期k12和高等教育入学人数将保持增长。未来三年（18财年至21财年）k12入学人数年复合增长率达到13.9%。管理层将维持目前学校容量水平，因此增加入学人数将提高利用率，从而通过经营杠杆提高盈利能力。学额的增长将持续提高高等教育入学人数。我们预期未来三年郑州工商学院(ZTBU)的学额将维持在1.1万人左右的水平。而毕业生人数维持在7,500人左右的规模，至21财年入学人数将增长至3.5万人。我们预期未来三年湖南涉外经济学院(HIEU)和山东英才学院(YCU)的在校生人数也将增长，带动高等教育总入学人数保持18.7%的增幅。我们预计由于良好的声誉，未来三年管理层将以每年2.4%的增幅逐步提高学费。
运营持续优化。我们预计管理层对新收购的学校实施详细的预算计划，这意味着管理层将事无巨细的支出事项前置审批。通过对每个业务单元的成本和费用有更细致的了解，公司将能够显著地改进成本控制。通过实施这一改变，去年湖南涉外经济学院的运营效率大幅提升，净利润率从17年的14.6%提升至19年上半年的40%。我们相信若山东英才学院实施相同的改革，利润率也将得到提升。公司预计在接管学校运营的一年后，20财年英才学院的净利润将增长30%至1.39亿左右。利润率将从2018年的24%提升至20财年的29.2%。
维持买入。公司充足的的在手现金（约人民币10亿元）和充沛的运营活动现金（20财年将有约人民币15亿元），我们相信公司未来将持续寻求并购机会。我们预计未来三年公司内生增长将推动利润增速维持在年化29.3%的水平。另外由于公司并购出众的并购过往业绩，任何收购将可能触发我们上调盈利预测。我们维持19至22财年每股收益为人民币0.22元/0.31元/0.37元的预测。我们维持目标价9.16港元，相当于19财年26.9倍PE，对应涨幅141%，我们维持买入评级。
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