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行业轮动策略8月建议超配计算机、传媒、医药生物、通信等行业
格隆汇 08-07 09:09

机构:申万宏源

本期投资提示:

2019年7月,科创板上市交易,首批25只科创板股票全部上涨,首周平均涨幅超过140%,超出市场预期。其中18只个股股价翻倍,交投非常活跃,5个交易日累计成交金额达1428.98亿元,占全部A股总成交的7.57%。在科创板带动之下,科技股整体表现较为出色。截至7月31日,主要宽基指数中,创业板指上涨3.90%,表现最好,同期中证1000指数下跌2.28%,表现最差。

从申万风格系列指数来看,七月份表现最好的是高市净率指数和高价股指数,分别上涨1.14%和0.70%。同期亏损股指数、微利股指数则分别下跌3.97%和3.45%,表现最差。

申万宏源金工从风格轮动与行业配置相匹配的思路,于2016年开发基于风格轮动与BL模型的行业配置策略,在样本外跟踪表现优异,2017年行业组合相对基准超额收益为18.18%(基准为行业等权组合)。2018年,行业轮动组合绝对收益-13.51%,战胜除休闲服务外的所有一级行业指数,相对于行业等权指数超额收益为16.49%。2019年7月,模型建议超配食品饮料、钢铁、家用电器、银行、交通运输和国防军工等行业,截至2019年7月底,7月份行业组合绝对收益-2.19%,跑输行业等权指数1.10%。

根据申万金工风格轮动模型,截止到2019年7月底,主要市场风格中,小盘风格相对于大盘风格占优、非金融相对于金融板块占优。结合市场对各行业2019年盈利预期,模型建议8月份关注计算机、传媒、医药生物、通信等行业。

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