大摩下调恒生(0011.HK)目标价至175港元评级“与大市同步”
大摩发表的报告指,恒生(00011.HK)经历过去三年每股盈利年复合增长达19%,前景面对困难,该行预计受经济放缓对公司增长构成压力,而低息环境及竞争将令净息差及费用收入受压,但大摩认为恒生盈利能力仍然很好,而且是派息安全的银行,但股本回报率或将受压,重申“与大市同步”评级,目标价由210港元降至175港元。

大摩指出恒生上半年每股盈利按年增长6%,较该行预测低约4%,主要受净息差收窄所拖累,加上额外一级资本债(AT1)的成本亦於上半年计算在内。期内贷款增长强劲,但存款增长呆滞,信贷成本维持稳定,但受孳息曲线趋平及存款转向高成本定期产品等影响,净息差受压。该行指出恒生仍然是盈利能力很好的银行,但每股盈利的走势或现挣扎。
该行指出未来半年将有八家虚拟银行推出,有机会提供更高的存款息及更低的贷款息,特别是针对中小企及非按揭类零售贷款,而零售产品方面费用亦料较低,如现有银行与虚拟银行竞争以避免市占率流失,相信将令整体收益受压,同时成本层面亦面对困难,相信恒生将继续在科技投资,但受新竞争出现人手成本或提升。
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