半导体观察系列之西部数据业绩低于预期指引Flash已位于周期底部给予“买入”评级
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
核心观点：
公司公司4QFY19业绩整体低于预期
本季实现收入36.3亿美元，环比小幅下降1.1%，同比下滑29.0%，位于上一季度指引36~38亿美元区间偏下限，低于Bloomberg一致预期36.6亿美元。本季实现毛利率（Non-GAAP）24.2%，位于上一季度指引24%~25%区间偏下限，低于Bloomberg一致预期24.4%。本季实现EPS（Non-GAAP)0.17美元，与Bloomberg一致预期0.16美元基本一致。
分部表现：大容量企业级硬盘拉动HDD增长，Flash受压价格下滑分产品看，本季HDD出货字节环比增长14%，HDD收入21.3亿美元，同比下滑23%，环比增长3%，来自于大容量企业级硬盘的拉动；Flash出货字节环比下降1%，ASP环比下滑6%，Flash收入15.1亿美元，同比下滑36%，环比下滑6%。
分市场看，本季ClientDevices业务收入16.1亿美元，同比下滑35%，环比下滑1%，原因在于消费级HDD和移动Flash业务的下滑抵消掉了消费级SSD产品的增长；ClientSolutions业务收入7.6亿美元，同比下滑27%，环比下滑6%，愿意在于Flash价格下滑；DataCenterDevices&Solution业务收入12.7亿美元，同比下滑21%，环比增长2%，原因在于大容量企业级硬盘的持续强劲表现。
市场分析：公司判断Flash市场已处于周期底部
考虑需求的增强以及近期日韩贸易摩擦所造成的韩厂减产，公司认为到2019年底Flash库存积压将被很大程度消化，公司目前已经看到了Flash产品的价格趋稳的迹象，并判断Flash市场当前已经到达了周期底部。
财务指引：预计下一财季收入同比下滑收窄，2020财年资本开支缩减下一财季（有14周），公司预计实现收入38~40亿美元，区间中值对应同比下滑22%，环比增长7%；预计毛利率（Non-GAAP）区间24%~25%，与前一季度指引持平。对于2020财年，公司初步预计总资本开支少于5亿美元，相比于2019财年的13.6亿美元大幅缩减。
断电事故：6/15日本四日工厂发生断电事故，目前几乎所有设备已恢复正常使用，预计影响6EB的的Flash产出。
华为客户：公司已部分恢复供货，对对4QFY19收入影响为1亿美元
数据来源：西部数据官网公开发布的季度营运结果材料及以及SeekingAlpha提供的ConferencecallTranscript文件。
风险提示
中美贸易摩擦带来的宏观风险；半导体行业景气度下滑的风险。
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