正荣地产(06158.HK)销售首破千亿大关盈利能力持续向好给予“增持”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：增持
投资要点
销售突破千亿，持续深耕长三角、海西经济区。2015-2018年公司销售金额复合增长率达到67.3%，在主流地产公司中属于较高水平，并在2018年首次突破千亿人民币。销售持续高增，核心原因在于公司兼顾深耕与区域拓展，在深耕二线城市的同时注重对强三线城市的拓展。2018年公司一、二、三线城市销售金额占比分别达3.8%、84.8%、11.4%。从区域分布的角度来讲，公司销售主要集中在长三角经济区、海西经济区以中部经济区，分别占比52.7%、25.8%及14.1%。
深耕都市圈，“1+6+X”形成全国化布局。截止2018年，公司土地储备累计建筑面积达2456万平方米，一二三线城市分别占比3.5%、70.6%、25.9%。公司采取逆周期的拿地策略，提前布局核心二线城市，压低土地成本，为毛利率的提升提供了足够的空间。公司目前土地储备的土地成本仅为4491元/平米，而同期销售均价接近16800元/平米，有效保障未来毛利水平。在拿地方式上，公司除了使用公开投标、拍卖和挂牌出售的方式进行土地收购外，还通过联合开发和股权收购的方式获取土地。多样化的土地获取方式更能提高拿到合意土地的概率并压低平均土地成本。
杠杆有效控制，融资成本大幅下降，盈利能力持续提升。2016-2018年资产负债率和净负债率均逐年下降，其中资产负债率由2016年的89.64%下降到2018年的82.69%，净负债率由16年的206.0%下降到18年的74.0%。杠杆有效控制背景下，公司融资成本持续下降。2017年公司融资成本仅7.3%，较2014年下降5.2个百分点。2018年在融资环境严峻的背景下，公司融资成本小幅回升至7.8%。盈利水平看，2018年公司毛利率为22.8%，较行业内龙头公司相比较低，但持续向好趋势明显。
盈利预测与投资评级：销售顺利破千亿规模，“1+6+X”完成全国化布局战略。公司作为销售增速较快的成长性房企，杠杆得到有效控制，融资成本持续走低。注重收益、风险可控，预计2019-2021年公司EPS分别为0.67、0.87、1.09元人民币，对应PE分别为5.93、4.61、3.67倍。首次覆盖予以“增持”评级。
风险提示：行业销售波动；政策调整导致经营风险；融资环境变动；企业运营风险；汇率波动风险。
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