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中国旭阳集团(01907.HK)估值较低首次覆盖给予“买入“评级目标价3.58港元
格隆汇 08-05 09:17

机构:国泰君安

评级:买入

目标价:3.58港元

政策推动下的行业整合为公司提供良好前景。在国内环保政策收紧而推动行业整合的背景下,旭阳计划利用其运营管理及技术输出服务(OMTOS),以轻资产模式吸收并升级行业内落后产能,实现市场扩张。我们预计OMTOS将会是2019-2021年重要的增长催化剂。

我们预计旭阳精细化工分部将实现可持续增长。鉴于强劲的需求和广阔的市场空间,旭阳计划增产附加值较高的精细化工产品。我们预计旭阳的精细化工分部将于2018-2021年实现13.1%的年复合增长率,且其收入占比将由2018年的39.6%增至2021年的48.1%。

我们预计2019-2021年每股净利分别为人民币0.630元、人民币0.684元和人民币0.699应元,对应3.3%的年复合增长率。我们的增长预测是建立在预测期内煤炭—焦炭价差将保持稳定、行业将持续受政策推动而整合,及旭阳精细化工分部盈利性将会提升的判断上。

我们首予“买入”评级,目标价3.58港元。旭阳股价目前对应4.0倍2019年市盈率,我们认为该市盈率未充分体现公司成长前景及商业规模。我们的目标价分别对应5.0倍/4.6倍/4.5倍2019-2021市盈率,且较我们用折现现金流方法得出的每股估值(5.80港元)有38.3%的折让。主要下行风险包括煤炭—焦炭价差收窄和OMTOS业务增速不及预期。

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