草根调研地产融资明显收紧信贷额度较为宽松
作者：钟正生、姚世泽、张璐、王晓璇、秦楠、杨其予、张颖锐
来源：莫尼塔宏观研究
报告摘要
7月份的销售保持平淡，预计下半年的销售状况并不乐观；房企融资受到了很大限制，信托项目和海外发债明显收缩；新开工和拿地增速回落，拿地成本明显上涨；政策边际上继续趋严，房贷利率出现上浮，限售限购范围扩大。
7月多数调研对象反映信贷投放有所增加，且额度较为宽松；但对贷款需求的感受相对较弱，合意融资需求比较有限。结合季节性规律，我们预估7月新增信贷约为1.5万亿，社融存量同比增速进一步上升至11.2%。几乎所有调研对象都反映，房地产融资政策收紧的影响很大，放款的政策从严、流程增加，导致即便是排名靠前的开发商资金也很紧张。也有调研对象指出，房地产政策收紧后，空余出了一部分信贷额度，部分银行也随之凸显出资产荒的问题。隐性债务处置目前看不到大的政策，基建项目以存量、有现金流的项目为主，项目储备不多。部分调研对象反馈了存款增速下降的问题，主要由于新增贷款多被用于还本付息，而没有进入实体派生。
7月钢材产量较去年同期及上个月皆有小幅上涨。目前大多数钢厂都在满负荷生产，产能利用率在90%以上。需求小幅回落，主要受长江中下游区域梅雨季节影响，多数工地停工。本月价格震荡偏弱运行，主因在于供给端增加和需求端偏弱。铁矿石价格上涨挤压钢厂盈利空间：按照目前钢价及铁矿石价格来看，钢厂无自备矿山情况下，螺纹钢吨钢毛利在350元左右，热卷吨钢毛利在200元左右。对于2019年全年钢材的价格及销售情况，调研对象总体保持谨慎，利润中枢下移成共识。
7月水泥销量呈现地区性差异，预计8月水泥销量与本月持平。价格方面，预计8月水泥因长江中下游进入三伏以及台风天气导致的施工受限，价格与7月持平。基建仍然是支撑水泥需求的主要项目，水泥库存整体偏高。环保限产依旧很严，但是目前仍然不用过多担心。
中美经贸摩擦缓和后，美线悲观预期并未修复，主因是已征收关税的负面影响逐渐加深以及美方企业较高的库存销售比。前期低附加值商品所受冲击最严重，但目前部分外资企业转移生产线至国外的意愿较强，将对高附加值商品出口形成拖累。
7月半数以上省份国六标准正式执行，“国五车降价促销”的逻辑消退，叠加部分城市宽限了国五车的上牌截止日（部分终端需求在5月-6月提前透支），导致7月终端销量降温。同时，国六车需求平淡，经销商尚未大量补库，库存深度整体处于低位。预计8月销量增速依然平淡，但有望边际上好于7月，调研对象普遍预期四季度或将在低基数效应下看到增速的见底回升。
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