罗家聪料美联储年底前将再减息一次港银「跟减」机会微
交通银行首席经济及策略师罗家聪出席电台节目时表示,美国联储局宣布减息四分一厘,根据利率期货市场预期,年底前仍会再减息一次,但参考美国最新的经济表现,认为衰退风险不高,通胀水平亦不低,所以仍未能确定下次减息将是甚麽月份。
他指出,虽然欧洲和日本都倾向跟随减息,但实际上欧洲和日本并无太大的减息空间,最後息差将以较慢步伐收窄,故相信美汇指数下跌压力有限。
他又预期,香港最优惠利率「跟减」机会不大,因为亦要视乎银行是否有意减价抢占市场,假如对楼市等的前景悲观,银行未必想借出这麽多。他指出,留意到近期香港的经济数据,当中投资有出现缩减,意味商业投资活动等均呈收缩,故银行亦未必有诱因增加放贷。
至於近期社会事件会否对经济带来影响,罗家聪认为,阻街或影响运输交通等不会有大影响,一些商户生意或受拖累,但个别中小企所受影响,在整体数据中未必能反映出来,反而大型基建投资或交易等,对经济影响则会较大。
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