小牛电动(NIU.O)电动两轮车的特斯拉首次覆盖给与“买入”评级
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
目标价：无
公司是国内锂电自行车龙头。公司成立于2014 年，目前是国内最大的锂 电池自行车公司，并在欧洲中端电动车市场排名第三。2018 年公司登陆 纳斯达克，并在全年实现全球销量34 万辆，同比增长 79.2%，海外销售 占比翻倍。公司共推出 N、M、U 三个系列产品，销售网点覆盖国内 150 个城市，全球 20 个国家。
电动自行车行业销量稳定，结构性剧变。我国是全球电动自行车生产和销 售第一大国，2017 年累计生产 3097 万辆，同比增长 0.55%，累计销售 3200 万，累计保有量已达 2.5 亿辆。从结构来看，铅酸电池自行车占据 国内市场约 90%份额，锂电池占 10%。新修订《电动自行车安全技术 规范》于 2019 年 4 月 15 日正式实施，新国标落地有利于低端产能出清， 锂电车型有望实现对铅酸电池的大量替代：新标准要求电动自行车整备质 量小于 55kg，铅酸电池在保证续航的情况下难以满足新国标，而锂电池 的重量仅为铅酸电池的 1/3，兼顾续航和重量要求。考虑到消费意愿及监 管力度，假定城市地区未来锂电车型渗透率达到 80%，有望催生 1500 万 辆/年的升级空间。
品牌价值造就护城河，公司显著受益行业空间快速提升。公司作为锂电电 动车龙头，致力于打造电动两轮车市场中生活方式品牌：1）产品多次获 得德国红点等设计大奖，品牌设计感深入人心；2）相比于传统电动车品 牌，嵌入了智能中枢ECU，通过遍布车内的传感器以及 NIU CLOUD 智能 云进行数据收集与分析为用户带来智能骑行体验；3）注重粉丝运营，多 渠道打造品牌文化，形成用户品牌价值认同感。从电池成本来看，锂电池 在 2100-2300 元左右，而铅酸电池在 700-800 元左右，锂电池化必然导 致造车成本提高，电动车价格中枢上移。而公司作为行业最先开拓了锂电 两轮电动车品类的企业，拥有充足的技术储备以及强大的品牌价值，必将 受益政策红利。
盈利预测与估值。我们看好小牛电动在锂电自行车领域的护城河优势，受 益政策催化下的市场空间快速提升。预计 2019-2021 年实现归属净利润 2330 万元/1.93 亿元/3.94 亿元人民币，对应 PE 144.7/17.4/8.5 倍，首次 覆盖给与“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业竞争加剧导致单车价值下滑；海外市场存在一定的不确定 性；新国标政策执行力度或不及预期。
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