《业绩前瞻》券商料汇控(00005.HK.HK)中期多赚8%至13%聚焦股份回购
重磅股汇丰控股(00005.HK.HK)将於下周一(8月5日)公布截至6月底止中期业绩，市场预期集团今年第二季收入增长仍可高於支出增长，本网综合4间券商预测，汇控上半年列帐基准除税前利润料介乎115.76亿至121.47亿美元，按年增加8.1%至13.4%，中位数为119.41亿美元，按年增加11.5%。
综合3间券商预测，汇控今年上半年列帐基准收入料介乎281.46亿至287.31亿美元，按年增加3.1%至5.3%。市场关注汇控於中期业绩时会否公布股份回购计划。
【高盛最乐观 料多赚半成】
高盛估计，汇控今年上半年列帐基准除税前利润为121.47亿美元按年升13.4%，属券商中最乐观，估计中期收入按年升5.3%至287.31亿美元，料中期净利息收入150.46亿美元、净利息收入61.83亿美元。该行料汇控今年第二季列帐基准除税前利润59.34亿美元按年近持平(按季跌4%)，料次季净利息收入按年跌1%至75.78亿美元，料净手续费收入按年下滑3%至31.57亿美元，料至6月底普通股权一级比率达到14.6%，料第二季每股派息维持0.1美元。
该行认为，汇控决定回购与否为中期业绩的重要关注点。该行指汇控已逾一年没有进行回购，但仍继续在指引中提及回购。该行料汇控会有25亿美元股份计划，基於业绩公布时将宣布有剩余资本，但该行指，英国「硬脱欧」可能性或导致汇控选择不进行回购。而高盛料汇控今年第二季收入增长仍可高於支出增长。
【将聚焦回购 若削呈利淡】
Jefferies上周报告表示，料汇控中期列帐基准除税前利润为121.32亿美元按年升13.3%，料收入284.6亿美元按年增长5.3%。该行指，加息周期带来的利润上行空间已大致完结，该行关注股份回购计划，若有所削减即为负面信号。
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本网综合4间券商预测，汇控上半年列帐基准除税前利润料介乎115.76亿至121.47亿美元，按年增加8.1%至13.4%，中位数为119.41亿美元，按年增加11.5%。
券商│今年中期列帐基准除税前利润预测│按年变幅
高盛│121.47亿美元│+13.4%
Jefferies│121.32亿美元│+13.3%
摩根士丹利│117.5亿美元│+9.7%
美银美林│115.76亿美元│+8.1%
按汇控对2018年上半年列帐基准除税前利润107.12亿元计算
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综合3间券商预测，汇控今年上半年列帐基准收入料介乎281.46亿至287.31亿美元，按年增加3.1%至5.3%。
券商│今年上半年列帐基准收入预测│按年变幅
高盛│287.31亿美元│+5.3%
Jefferies│284.6亿美元│+4.3%
美银美林│281.46亿美元│+3.1%
按汇控2018年上半年列帐基准收入272.87亿元计算
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