物业管理行业全景图“城镇化+消费升级+渗透率提升“多重驱动物管发展方兴未艾
机构：平安证券
投资要点
城镇化、消费升级、渗透率提升等多重驱动，行业空间可观：根据《国家人口发展规划（2016年-2030 年）》预期发展 目标，预计2030年城镇化率升至70%，城镇化率提升将带来增量物管服务需求，同时目前存量物业面积远超物管规模， 存量住宅物管渗透率仅48%，未来亦具提升空间；商办等高服务费业务占比提升也有望带动综合服务费提升。在物业费 保持稳定的保守测算下，预计2030年末行业在管面积可达318.4亿平、基础物业服务规模1.6万亿，均较2018年提升 51%。此外伴随人均可支配收入增长、消费升级，增值服务亦有望成为行业规模及利润重要增长点。
集中度持续提升，金融资本助力规模扩张：国内物业管理行业呈现“大行业小公司”格局，2018年行业十强管理面积 均值2.4亿平、市占率11.4%，百强管理面积均值3718万平、市占率38.9%，预计随着上游房地产行业集中度提升以及资 本助力并购整合，物管集中度有望持续提升。行业需求持续旺盛下，物管企业顺应市场发展，积极拥抱资本市场，借助 金融资本快速扩张。区域布局上，物管企业抢抓主流市场、持续渗透深耕，2018年百强53%管理面积位于五大城市群， 单城市管理面积均值达128.2万平，同比增长13.5%。
“扩容+开源+节流”构筑核心竞争力：从收入端来看，物管企业一方面借助并购扩张、平台输出、关联房企委托快速扩 大规模，拓宽基础物业规模容量；另一方面通过轻资产运营，积极探索高毛利率增值服务，在推升行业规模天花板同时 亦将为利润增长提供更大想象空间。从利润端来看，人力成本构成物管企业成本之首（占比约60%），服务费上涨难度 较大背景下，人力成本的刚性上涨将导致利润承压，物管企业持续加大外包比例及智能化投入，2018年百强企业清洁、 绿化、设备维修养护、秩序维护项目外包比例达60.4%、43.3%、37%、24.9%；2017年智能化投入均值716.2万元，同 比增长50%。
投资建议：伴随竣工面积增速的逐步回升、增值服务需求的持续释放以及行业支持政策的不断加码，物管行业有望持续 快速发展，集中度亦将继续提升。展望未来，我们认为管理面积获取能力、增值服务运营能力和成本控制将成为物业管 理企业做大做强的关键点所在。我们预计，关联房企实力雄厚或独立第三方规模拓展能力较强的物管企业有望脱颖而出。
风险提示：1、房地产销售预冷，行业后续规模增长不及预期；2、国内经济增速回落，增值服务消费需求大幅下行；3、 人力成本大幅上升。
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