海螺创业(0586.HK)固废危废处置快速发展垃圾处置超预期维持“买入”评级目标价34.55港元
机构：广发证券
评级：买入
目标价：34.55 港元
核心观点：
固废危废处置如期快速发展
2019 年上半年，公司签约 5 个水泥窑协同处置固废危废项目。公司目前重点推进 环保产业发展，不断提升产能，且储备项目较多，未来将逐步得到盈利释放。因此我们 上调了盈利预测，我们预计公司固废危废产能2019-2021年末分别能达到245/385/505 万吨/年，收入为人民币 11.93/23.56/36.72 亿元，同比增速为 202%/97%/56%。 垃圾处置上半年签约超预期，毛利率略有下降 2019 年上半年公司垃圾处置签约项目超出预期，新签约 13 个炉排炉项目，超过 2018 年全年签约数。但由于公司建设成本上涨，建设期毛利率略有下降。根据公司上 半年发展情况，我们轻微上调预测，并预计公司 2019-2021 年末垃圾处置产能分别为 243/405/883 万吨/年，收入为人民币 23.4/34.7/48.4 亿元，同比增速为 36%/48%/39%。
海螺水泥 Q1 超预期，奠定全年盈利基础
海螺水泥 2019Q1 年主营业务营收人民币 305.01 亿元，同比增长 63%；归母净利 润 60.81 亿元，同比增长 27%。行业需求景气，海螺水泥 Q1 销量超预期，为全年盈 利奠定基础。根据广发建材团队预计，2019-2021 年海螺水泥对公司利润贡献分别为 人民币 50.40/48.82/54.77 亿元。 盈利预测与投资评级
2019 年 7 月 26 日，海螺创业（00586.HK）收盘价为 27.30 港元，我们预测公司 2019-2021 年 EPS 分别为人民币 3.365/3.693/4.477 元。我们对公司的主营环保板块 和联营的水泥板块分开估值，由于（1）未来 3-5 年固废危废及垃圾处置业务的快速增 长将带动环保板块业绩快速提升，19-21 年环保板块净利润年复合增长率可达 58%； （2）联营的海螺水泥为水泥行业龙头公司，经营稳健，业绩稳定。分别基于 2019 年 环保板块 11 倍 PE 和水泥板块广发建材团队给予的 1.85 倍 PB，公司环保板块和水泥 板块合理价值分别为 7.45 和 27.11 港元/股，合计 34.55 港元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示
危废、固废处置产能建设进度低于预期；危废处置涨价幅度低于预期，项目利用率 不及预期，炉排炉项目进度低于预期，水泥价格下行等风险。
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