金地商置(0535.HK)中期业绩大超预期维持“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
目标价：无
事件
金地商置公布 2019 上半年业绩预告：2019 年上半年公司持有人应占溢 利同比增长不少于 70%，业绩实现高增主要源于销售物业交付面积同比 大幅增加、应占合营公司盈利增加所致。
点评
上半年归母净利润同比增长不少于 70%。公司发布盈利预喜，2019 年 上半年公司归母净利润同比增长不少于 70%，即上半年实现归母净利润 将超过 10.18 亿元。2015-2017 年公司销售规模增长迅猛，从 2015 年的 112.0 亿元迅速增长至 2017 年的 452.76 亿元，年化复合增速达 101%。 2019 上半年业绩实现高增主要源于销售物业交付面积同比大幅增加、 应占合营公司盈利增加所致。公司之前累积较多已售未结算资源给公司 未来业绩打下坚实基础。 销售规模持续高增。公司 6 月合约销售额约 60.05 亿元，同比增长 114%， 较前值提升67个百分点；合约销售面积32.66万平方米，同比增长117%； 销售均价 18400 元/平米。公司上半年推盘规模不断提升，带动销售金 额增长可观。从累计数据看，2019 年 1-6 月累计合约销售额 261.68 亿 元，同比增长 64%；累计合约销售面积 124.03 万平方米，同比增长 68%。
投资建议：金地商置拿地前瞻，重点布局核心一二线城市，土地储备充 沛且成本较低，土地储备规模接近 1400 万平米。同时公司还在深圳、 上海等核心城市持有大量优质物业，未来租金收入将持续提升。预计 2019-2021 年公司 EPS 分别为 0.20、0.27、0.31 元人民币，对应 PE 分别 为 4.10、3.03、2.67 倍，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：行业销售波动；政策调整导致经营风险（棚改、调控、税收 政策等）；融资环境变动（按揭、开发贷、利率调整等）；企业运营风险 （人员变动、施工、拿地等）；汇率波动风险。
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