海底捞(6862.HK)持续追踪报告员工福利体系进一步深化预计19H1整体运营状况良好维持“买入”评级目标价34.30港元
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：34.30 港元
◆“亲子陪伴”+“荣誉店长”计划进一步深化员工福利体系 海底捞优质服务的背后是整体高薪资以及高福利体系的支撑。2018 年公司 员工成本占营业收入的比重为 29.6%，显著高于同业水平。今年公司推出 了“亲子陪伴”和“荣誉店长”计划，进一步深化了员工福利。“亲子陪 伴”是针对店长和在公司满 5 年以上的员工家庭，将原本在老家念书的孩 子接到父母身边接受教育，这一计划免去了员工对于子女教育问题的担忧。 “荣誉店长”计划主要针对海底捞的资深家族长，对于家族里所有门店的 考核会累计出一个分数，如果累计分排名靠前，家族长在退休之后可以拿 到一定的退休工资。这一计划既可以给为企业做出贡献的家族长一个长期 生活保障，又可以督促资深家族长在日常经营中多花心思在徒弟和徒孙店 的经营监督上，从而保证整体的拓店质量。
◆上半年整体运营情况良好，18 年底集中开店扔处爬坡期 根据大众点评和海底捞 APP 数据（考虑到门店信息更新存在滞后），我们 预计 19H1 新开门店约 110-120 家。当前海底捞门店的数量在提升，但是 区域密度仍然较低，从 APP 上来看排队情况依然较好（门店高峰期会暂时 关闭网上等位取号），因此我们预计上半年翻台整体依然能维持 5.0 左右的 水平。营业收入的增速主要由新开店决定，预计 19H1 营业收入增速为 50%-60%。净利方面，由于去年年底特别是 12 月开店相对较多，这些店 虽然经营状况良好，但从我们实地走访的几家店来看，截至 19H1 仅运营 6 个多月时间，尚处于爬坡期；此外今年上半年新开店较多，前期投入成本 （店面装修费以及提前招募员工费用）有所增加，因此预计净利增速会慢 于营收增速，预计 19H1 净利增速为 40%-50%。
◆盈利预测与投资评级 我们维持 2019-2021 年分别净增加 270/235/235 家门店，未来三年收入分 别为 298.83/432.60/557.49 亿元，今年下半年公司新开店进入成熟期，利 润增速将高于上半年，维持 2019-2021 年净利分别为 28.16/40.07/51.50 亿元的盈利预测，维持公司“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：1）开店速度不及预期；2）行业竞争高于预期。
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