监管风暴中心的谷歌(GOOGL.O)收入增长会继续放缓吗?
作者:英为财情
来源:英为财情Investing
谷歌将于7月25日周四盘后公布2019年第二季度财报;收入预期:381.6亿美元;每股盈利预期:11.1美元。
有明显的迹象表明投资者对谷歌(NASDAQ:GOOGL) 心存忧虑。在过去12个月中,谷歌股票落后于其他顶级科技股,主要是因为市场担心其快速增长趋势将面临压力,而且产生丰厚盈利的日子可能已经结束。
此前,谷歌公布的一季度不及预期,令其前景存疑。在一季度,谷歌的广告收入同比仅增长约15%,为自2015年底以来最低的增长率。一些投资者担心,该搜索引擎巨头的增长可能遭遇瓶颈,就像2015年的情况一样。

Alphabet Class C 股价,来源:英为财情Investing.com
根据FactSet的最新预测,今年谷歌的广告收入预计将增长16%,而2018年为22%。分析师预计第二季度广告收入为324亿美元,比去年同期增长15%。
在此不利背景下,今年迄今谷歌成为了表现最差的千亿美元市值科技股。自上次财报公布以来,谷歌的股价下跌超过10%,其中A类股周三收报1139.73美元,C类股收报1137.81美元。
毫无疑问,对于运营着大型社交媒体平台的公司而言,运营环境正变得越来越具有挑战性。在谷歌的这个例子中,投资者迫切地想要了解它和美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)在有关YouTube儿童隐私的问题上有没有达成和解,以及美国司法部将对谷歌进行怎样的反垄断调查。
我们认为,拖累谷歌股价的最主要因素正是这些监管调查。包括谷歌在内的社交媒体公司被指控通过操纵消费者数据使其成为自身优势,未能阻止平台的滥用,以及作出了扼杀竞争的垄断行为。
如果摒除这些政治和监管风险,我们认为谷歌的核心广告业务不会受到威胁。毕竟仅仅一个季度的失误,不会对谷歌此前的快速增长产生太大影响。
近十年来,谷歌在搜索领域一直保持着无可撼动的领先地位。它控制着全球92%的搜索市场份额,而其竞争对手、位列第二的微软必应Bing,仅占2.5%。这个护城河仍然牢固,有望继续为谷歌带来巨大的现金收入。
无论如何,谷歌仍是科技领域的一个成功案例。它引导了欧洲新隐私规则的制定,使自身广告业务受到的影响降至最低。此外,谷歌积极投资数字经济等新领域,如云计算和无人驾驶汽车,致力于在数字广告业务之外实现收入的多元化。
当然,鉴于监管威胁,谷歌股票在短期内仍将面临压力。出于这个原因,该股票目前还没有提供令人信服的买入机会,投资者眼下最好保持场外观望。
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