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中国光大国际(0257.HK)行业投资放缓或将导致产能释放计划延迟维持“买入“评级
格隆汇 07-24 08:28

机构:国泰君安

评级:买入

目标价:9.50港元

根据中国国家统计局的数据,2019年前六个月水利管理业固定资产投资增速为1.1%,低于预期。此外,节能环保产业和农林水务产业前六个月的财政支出的累计同比变化分别为19.7%及13.0%,较前五个月的29.8%及14.1%有所下跌。

截至2018年12月31日,公司385亿港元未偿还借款中的52%以人民币计值,公司98.2%的收入来自中国,并以人民币计值。因此人民币贬值将对公司股东净利产生负面影响,因其报告货币为港元。根据我们的敏感性分析,人民币兑港元若贬值5%,公司的股东净利将分别于2019年、2020年和2021年下降1.0%、1.1%和1.3%。

我们将2019/2020/2021年每股盈利预测分别下调至0.828港元、0.934港元及1.030港元,对应2018-2021年每股盈利年均复合增长率为6.3%。将目标价下调至9.50港元,相当于11.5倍/10.2倍/9.2倍2019/2020/2021年市盈率。由于估值仍具吸引力,维持“买入”评级。

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