中广核电力(1816.HK)台山核电维持“增持”评级目标价2.48港币
机构：申万宏源
评级：增持
目标价：2.48港币
最近我们参加了中广核电力江门台山核电站反向路演。目前台山核电站有两台EPR机组，单机容量1.75GW,一台已投运，一台计划2019年年底投运。尽管EPR研发费用高昂，我们预期台山核电站仍将给公司带来收益。中广核电力目前有22个在运机组，合计容量24.3GW,6个在建机组，合计容量7.4GW。我们维持2019年EPS预测0.21元，2020年EPS预测0.23元，我们预测2021年EPS0.26元。我们上调目标价至2.48港币，对应10.2倍19年PE及1.3倍19年PB。维持增持评级。
台山核电站。台山核电站目前有两台EPR机组，单机容量1.75GW,为全球最大。1号机组于2018年12月投产，2号机组于2019年6月23日完成首次并网，预期今年年底投产。EPR建设成本为25000元/KW,相比华龙一号16000元/KW高出56.3%。3月27日，公司获国家发改委批准，1号机组和2号机组的核准电价（含税）为0.4350元/kWh，且在该等电价下每年最低利用小时数为7500小时。我们同时指出该等电价不受5月出台的增值税税率下调政策影响。台山核电站的股权结构为：广东省国资委19%，中广核电力51%，法国电力30%。尽管EPR机组研发费用高昂，考虑到政府的积极扶持，我们认为台山核电站将为公司带来收益。由于缺少一个完整燃料周期（18个月）的数据，我们需要更多信息来测算台山核电站对公司盈利的具体影响。
运营数据符合预期。公司19年上半年发电量79.95TWh，同比+11.97%，符合我们预期。平均利用小时数略微下降1.1%（1H19为3,289小时，1H18为3,326小时）。发电量增长主要缘于2018年投产的台山1号机组。公司上半年按计划完成11次大修，下半年拟进行6次大修。据管理层披露，阳江6号机组和台山2号机组将于2019年下半年投入商运，总装机量约为2.84GW。我们预期公司19年下半年发电量将稳中有升。
维持增持。我们维持2019年EPS预测0.21元，2020年EPS预测0.23元，我们预测2021年EPS0.26元。我们上调目标价至2.48港币，对应10.2倍19年PE及1.3倍19年PB。维持增持评级。
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