野村陆金所淘汰P2P业务对中国平安(2318.HK)影响有限
野村发表研究报告指,中国互联网金融协会在有关规范线上借贷业务风险的研讨会上,没有提及“P2P网贷”,正如该行及行业预期,P2P网贷不会在短期内实现。该行认为,随着法规收紧,将只有治理健康、资本稳固的平台才能生存,并预料网贷行业的贷款增长可能会受到监管部门严格控制线上借贷行业规模的影响而放慢。
该行又指,更倾向于乐信保险,而非其他较小型的企业,而中国平安(2318.HK)旗下陆金所早前宣布,将会逐步淘汰其P2P业务并转型为持牌消费金融公司,认为对平保的影响将会有限。野村指,根据平保今年首季的报告,陆金所的贷款余额为403亿元人民币,P2P业务规模约为整体业务约12%。
野村提到,中国互联网金融协会在研讨会上指出,将继续关注缩减P2P平台的规模、贷款余额,及投资者与借款人的数量,并加强对现有P2P平台有序退出的工作。从今年第四季起,协会将合资格的P2P平台纳入监管实验。
该行认为,即使有监管实验,内地对P2P平台强而有力的监管有可能会继续,并相信监管部门将倾向于按某些许可证进行监管,因此在线平台可能需要许可证才能继续营运。
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