中国信义玻璃(0868.HK)逐步走出谷底
机构：银河证券
6月浮法玻璃价格上涨
自2019年初以来，浮法玻璃价格一直疲软，我们认为这是由于经济活动放缓所致。2019年二季度中国主要城市的浮法玻璃平均价格为74.2元人民币/重量箱，环比下降3.9％，对比2019年一季度为77.2元人民币/重量箱。但由于沙河地区关闭一些产能和季节性因素，浮法玻璃价格在5月逐渐见底回升。虽然部分工厂在二季度重新投产，但有效产能在年初至今仍减少1.6％，从2018年底的9.259亿吨降至2019年7月中旬的9.111亿吨。据报道指，沙河政府要求关闭六条使用煤炭进行生产的玻璃生产线；它们的产能占总有效产能的1.6％。我们认为，冷修有机会使行业供应下降，并使信义玻璃等龙头企业面对更为有利的供需形势。库存也从近期3月的高位回落。另一方面，我们看到6月中国土地销售收入回升，主要由于一线和二线城市房地产行业复苏所致，因此房地产相关行业（如玻璃制造业）的投资情绪或会改善。
减持信义光能股权带来出售收益
信义玻璃于6月以每股3.75港元出售了3.14亿股信义光能股份，持股从28.3％下降至24.4％。估计此次出售股份的出售收益超过5亿港元，而我们未将这收益计入核心盈利预测之中。
沽空报告引发的忧虑已平息我们相信，沽空报告对信义玻璃的影响已逐渐消退。我们认为，沽空报告并未提供证据证实信义玻璃有不法行为；此外，对于沽空报告将信义玻璃与香港及海外其他公司比较，我们认为其可比性不高（详情请参阅我们在2019年6月27日的更新报告）。我们并不认为沽空报告对信义玻璃的影响会持续很长时间，但投资者或会等待公司公布2019年中报和管理作出指引后才重新审视股份。预计股份股价会在短期内整固，我们认为这带来重新买入的机会。
下调盈利预测
由于浮法玻璃价格低于预期，我们将信义玻璃2019年和2020年盈利预测分别下调2.3％和10.2％。如果撇除出售信义光能所得的出售收益，预计信义玻璃的2019年核心净利润将同比下降。此外，我们下调盈利预测也是考虑到信义光能贡献减少的因素。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
