大摩内险中期或多赚20-140%看好平保(2318.HK)太保(2601.HK)
摩根士丹利发表研究报告指,预料内险企业今年上半年将有大幅增长,估计盈利增长将达20%至140%,主要受A股回报强劲、去年退税以及今年有效税率较低等因素推动。该行亦预料,寿险的新业务价值增长将略为低于市场预期,而产险的收益则会有改善。
大摩表示,A股上半年回报增长19%,或令内险公司上半年收益率提升至4.5至5.5%,加上去年内地退税10亿至100亿元人民币等,将可能带动中国人寿、中国太保(2601.HK)及中国平安(2318.HK)的盈利有显著增长,又预料大部分公司的年化资本回报率将回复至15%至25%水平。
该行又指,寿险市场一直在整合中,加上经纪人数亦下跌5%至10%,在产品价格及代理质量较为落后的公司将能提高生产率及利润率以加快增长,预料人保(1339.HK)寿险的新业务价值将有25%,为行业领先,其次为中国人寿,有15%增长,新华保险新业务价值将有5%增长,而平保亦将增长3%。中国太平及太保新业务价值则将分别跌10%。
产险方面,大摩指,由于积极的投资,相信总保费(GWP)增长较少波动,但承保利润仍可能有所下跌。
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