郭家耀:港股短期续拉锯内地基建投资增速料加快
正荣金融业务部副总裁郭家耀称,美股上周五(19日)向下,市场对减息炒作逐步消退,投资者再次聚焦全球经济及中美贸易谈判前景不明,大市气氛转为审慎。美元低位略为会升,美国十年期债息亦回升至2.04厘水平,油价受地缘政局消息刺激而造好,金价高位出现大幅回吐。港股预托证券大致偏软,预料大市早段跟随外围低开。内地股市低位反弹,整体成交仍然不振,市场观望今周科创板开市情况,预料短期表现仍难望有太大改善。
港股上周表现向好,但成交未算配合,预料大市短期仍维持上落市局面,观望外围经济数据及企业业绩消息,预料指数在29,000点仍有较大阻力,下方支持在28,200点附近。
另发改委目前已批覆的专项债规模已将近400亿元人民币,市场分析指,专项债新规发布後,允许专项债资金作为部分重大基建项目资本金,将为下半年的基建提速提供重要支持。由於目前基建项目资本金比重普遍达20%,意味着专项债资金计入资本金後,将直接撬动约4倍左右的市场融资,因此具有显着的倍增效应。
根据测算,6月後发行的专项债中若有10%作为基建项目资本金,将带动基建增速加快约3.5个百分点。内地近日公布的经济数据好坏参半,中美贸易谈判仍乏进展,中央将有需要推出更多扶持政策稳定经济前景预期,基建投资增速可望加快,利好相关股份表现。
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