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维达国际(3331.HK)销售强劲盈利能力复苏确定性强维持“收集”评级目标价18.00港元
格隆汇 07-22 10:16

机构:国泰君安

评级:收集

目标价:18.00港元

维达2019年上半年业绩好于预期。维达2019年上半年销售同比增长7.6%(有机增长为13.0%)至78.91亿港元,主要归因于销售量增长和产品结构改善。大陆地区的纸巾销售增长为维达的主要驱动力,不过个人护理产品的销售稍微令人失望。尽管维达上半年毛利率同比下降1.6个百分点至28.1%,但因为下降的木浆价格以及产品结构升级毛利率在第2季度环比改善。因为销售管理费用较好的控制以及更低的有效税率,维达2019年上半年股东净利同比增长5.4%至4.40亿港元。

下半年盈利回升空间巨大。2019年上半年,维达不仅在电商渠道实现强劲增长,其在B2B渠道也取得双位数增长,而且甚至在传统渠道也实现增长。市场竞争可能变得更加激烈但价格战还没有开始出现,因为没有公司想要第一个调价。因为低木浆价格,我们预计公司毛利率将会在2019年下半年进一步改善。而且因为边际上更少来自人民币贬值的影响以及稳定的销售管理费用率,我们预计公司经营利润率将会在2019年下半年超过8.5%。

维达持续不断地在夺取市场份额,因为其充分适应渠道变动,与胜出的渠道(电商)共舞,而且其紧跟高端化潮流,推出不同的创新的高价值产品。短期内,我们预计低木浆价格将显著改善其盈利能力。因此,我们维持公司“收集”评级,上调目标价至18.00港元,相当于22.0倍,18.3倍和15.8倍2019年,2020年和2021年市盈率。

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