新创建集团（0659.HK）为防守型业务添加增长动力首予“买入”评级目标价19.02港元
机构：招银国际
评级：买入
目标价：19.02港元
随着减息周期临近，非周期性高息股份表现料相对出色。新创建的收费道路和飞机租赁等核心业务，为公司带来强劲现金流和稳定收益。虽然2019财年盈利料同比下降，但估计公司营运溢利已触底，并将回复长期增长趋势。管理层重视公司增长，进一步出售非核心资产以及成功整合保险业务将促使估值重估。首次覆盖给予买入评级，目标价定于19.02港元。
盈利触底反弹。新创建将于2019年9月公布2019财年业绩（6月年结），由于一些短期因素，预计每股盈利同比下降25.9%。受益于新增长动力，估计在2019-21财年公司应占经营溢利的复合年增长率为12.1%。假如将正待监管机构审批的富通保险收购项目纳入计算范围，利润增长则更为显著。
专注核心业务有助估值重估。新创建近年来较频密地出售非核心资产，并转向投资更具增长潜力的业务。认同公司政策方向，进一步重组资产并专注核心业务（道路、飞机租赁、保险）将有利提高盈利预测和估值。
催化剂：并购拉动增长。新创建拥有充裕净现金，即使假设富通保险收购已完成，净负债比率仍将处于健康水平。公司拥有现金流强劲的业务，加上未来或出售更多非核心资产，新创建拥有足够弹药进行更多并购以推动增长。
公司正检视股息政策。公司目前的派息比率为净利润的50%，受到一次性和非经营项目影响，若股息政策不变，预计2019财年每股派息将随净利润下跌，有损其作为高息防守股的吸引力。管理层正考虑其他方案，而一个能提供稳定和可预见每股派息的新政策，相信将会受到投资者欢迎。
股价较资产净值折让36%。根据分类加总估值法，得出资产净值每股23.76港元，以公司目前股价对应资产净值有36%折让。基于资产净值20%折让的假设，目标价定于19.02港元，加上预测年度派息0.58港元，潜在总回报率为28.1%。
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