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瑞银料港银上半年业绩可略优于预期中银(2388.HK)估值吸引
格隆汇 07-19 15:49

瑞银发表研究报告,预期香港银行业今年上半年的业绩会较该行原先预期略好。截至今年5月,银行业的贷款增长率为3.1%,而最近的银行同业拆息(HIBOR)增长理应能部分抵销首季净息差回软的影响。另外,港股交投及基金销售复苏,或可提振港银与市场相关的手续费收入,并认为潜在的资产质素压力尚未浮面。因此,该行预期香港银行业上半年的盈利按半年出现明显反弹,而按年增长则因为高基数效应而面对挑战。

随着该行的经济学家开始对美国减息的预期更高,该行亦正下调其净息差预期。但考虑到可能出现持续的资金流出压力,该行相信HIBOR不会在短期内急跌至先前的较低水平。同时,该行对香港银行业2020年的盈利预测下调4至5%,并料贷款增长维持温和,在2020年或有轻微反弹。在经济放缓的情况下,2019下半年至2020上半年或会出现更多资产质素压力。

瑞银仍认为中银香港(02388.HK)估值吸引,其估值相当于明年预测市盈率不足10倍;另恒生银行(00011.HK)强劲的资本状况及股息,理应能抵御美国国债孳息率下跌的影响。

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