《大行報告》摩通內銀看好招行(03968.HK)及郵儲行(01658.HK)避開重農行(03618.HK)及民行(01988.HK)
摩根大通發表內銀股報告,偏好招行(03968.HK)及郵儲行(01658.HK),並建議迴避重農行(03618.HK)及民行(01988.HK)。摩根大通指,招行擁有強勁盈利能力、領先零售業務及謹慎風險管理,郵儲行則有具流動性的資產負債表、改善的效率等因素推動股本回報率上升。重農行及民行則面對信貨風險及融資成本上升問題。
摩根大通表示,內銀今年面對潛在資產質素轉差趨勢,從企業債務違約增加及中小企財務轉弱可見。大型銀行面對政策風險,尤其支持普惠金融,人行或透過要求銀行把借貸利率與同業利率掛鉤,下調有效借貸利率,縱使該行不預期這種情況出現。
摩根大通又指,中國收緊影子銀行導致企業槓桿及影子信貸穩定,目前內銀股股價相等於2019年預測市帳率0.63倍及不良貸款比率6.6%。若加上壞帳記帳,去年經調整不良貸款率為6.6%,較2014年高4.6個百分點,並預測有關比率在2021年升至7%,顯著高於今年首季列帳的1.8%。該行又認為,監管當局進一步收緊對不良貸款及其他金融資產的信貸風險識別,改善內銀貸款撥備,為未來盈利提供緩衝。
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