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渣打料今年环球经济增长放缓至3.4%中国增长近6.5%
阿思达克 07-18 12:36

渣打大中华及北亚首席经济师丁爽在记者会上表示,预期今年环球经济增长将会由3.7%放缓至3.4%,其中美国、欧元区增长均料将放缓,分别由2.9%及1.8%,放缓至2.3%及1.2%,但强调全球经济增长只是放缓而非衰退。由於预期增长放缓,全球已有更多央行采取宽松措施及开始减息。

他预期,美国将於本月底减息25点子,今年底再减息25点子,东盟、印度及拉丁美洲等多国亦料将於下半年开始减息。至於欧盟下半年估计仍会维持主要利率不变,但可能会在9月下调存款利率10点子。

中国方面,丁爽认为,经济下行风险有所加大,预期政府在下半年将继续推出稳增长政策,加上减税效果逐步体现,使经济表现温和复苏,预料内地今年全年经济增长将接近政府目标6%至6.5%的上限。

他又称,内地货币政策料将维持适度宽松,预期人行会继续透过降准、中期借贷便利等不同工具刺激经济,整体刺激规模或相当於全面降准100个基点。利率方面,由於经济增长存下行压力及通胀处较低水平,内地减息条件逐渐成熟,但估计人行对减息动作会较为审慎,可能仅将中期借贷便利利率下调10点子。此外,内地基准利率已长时间没有改变,预料人行或於下月推行利率改革,逐步淘汰基准借贷利率。

渣打中国宏观策略部主管刘洁则指,在中美贸易谈判难以在短期达成实质性进展及协议、中国经济存下行压力等的情况下,人民币兑美元难以跌穿「七算」,预期於6.8至6.9的水平横行时间最长,该行人民币兑美元今年底目标为6.86,明年底为6.82。

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