渣打料今年環球經濟增長放緩至3.4%中國增長近6.5%
渣打大中華及北亞首席經濟師丁爽在記者會上表示,預期今年環球經濟增長將會由3.7%放緩至3.4%,其中美國、歐元區增長均料將放緩,分別由2.9%及1.8%,放緩至2.3%及1.2%,但強調全球經濟增長只是放緩而非衰退。由於預期增長放緩,全球已有更多央行採取寬鬆措施及開始減息。
他預期,美國將於本月底減息25點子,今年底再減息25點子,東盟、印度及拉丁美洲等多國亦料將於下半年開始減息。至於歐盟下半年估計仍會維持主要利率不變,但可能會在9月下調存款利率10點子。
中國方面,丁爽認為,經濟下行風險有所加大,預期政府在下半年將繼續推出穩增長政策,加上減稅效果逐步體現,使經濟表現溫和復甦,預料內地今年全年經濟增長將接近政府目標6%至6.5%的上限。
他又稱,內地貨幣政策料將維持適度寬鬆,預期人行會繼續透過降準、中期借貸便利等不同工具刺激經濟,整體刺激規模或相當於全面降準100個基點。利率方面,由於經濟增長存下行壓力及通脹處較低水平,內地減息條件逐漸成熟,但估計人行對減息動作會較為審慎,可能僅將中期借貸便利利率下調10點子。此外,內地基準利率已長時間沒有改變,預料人行或於下月推行利率改革,逐步淘汰基準借貸利率。
渣打中國宏觀策略部主管劉潔則指,在中美貿易談判難以在短期達成實質性進展及協議、中國經濟存下行壓力等的情況下,人民幣兌美元難以跌穿「七算」,預期於6.8至6.9的水平橫行時間最長,該行人民幣兌美元今年底目標為6.86,明年底為6.82。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.