西部水泥(2233.HK)低估的区域龙头布局正当时维持“审慎增持”评级目标价1.73港元
机构:西部证券
评级:审慎增持
目标价:1.73港元
投资要点
我们的观点:我们预计公司 2019-2021 年实现归母净利润分别为 17.21 亿、17.59 亿和 18.01 亿元,维持“审慎增持”评级,目标价 1.73港元。
我们自18年持续建议重视绝对收益的中长线投资者积极关注,近期公司股价表现靓丽,但从DCF绝对估值及相对估值的角度,公司股价依旧被严重低估。牵制估值修复的原因是分红,我们预计19年经营性现金流入20亿/年,可完全覆盖资本开支及计划净还债,公司分红比例有望提高至行业平均水平。从中期角度,关中获批为第八个国家级城市群,公司地处好格局下的好市场,盈利持续性有保证,我们看好公司估值继续修复。
公司简介:西部水泥是陕西省最大的水泥生产商,在陕南及关中东部占有市场主导地位,新疆和贵州也有布局。
陕西市场格局和水泥需求潜力分析:好格局下的好市场,高盈利可持续。陕西市场集中度高,西部、海螺、冀东三分天下,西部水泥偏安一隅,避开关西激烈竞争区域,整合了陕南和关东市场。19年以来,大企业陆续启动万吨线置换项目,进一步提升企业竞争力。
2018年,国家发改委发布《关中平原城市群发展规划》,关中成为第八个国家级城市群,将继续发挥虹吸效应,进一步吸引资金、人才等资源向陕西集聚,参考其他七个国家级城市群的人均水泥需求,关中平原明显较低,配套基础设施建设和房地产投资都将保证水泥中长期需求。
公司深耕区域龙头,依托产业链拓展新业务:(1)依托自有矿山,公司计划在3-5年内实现骨料产能2000万吨,较当前收入和毛利有17%和30%的上升空间,具有较高的盈利能力和发展空间。(2)与海螺创业合资成立的尧柏环保日渐成熟,废物处置贡献了新的盈利来源。
风险提示:经济恶化、行业协同破裂、原材料价格波动、信贷风险、股权纷争、企业治理风险

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.