西部水泥(2233.HK)全年业绩弹性大估值有望继续修复维持“审慎增持”评级目标价1.73港元
机构：西部证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：1.73 港元
投资要点
公司发布正面盈利预告，截至 2019 年 5 月 31 日止 5 个月的收益同比增加约 26%，预期截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日止 6 个月录得纯利适度增加。
全年业绩弹性大，盈利持续性有保证 统计局口径下 19 年 1-5 月陕西省水泥产量同比增 11.89%，陕南&关东代表城 市 42.5 散装水泥平均含税零售价 19H1 是 440 元，同比增 20 元，环比增 7 元。
需求增量主要来自于基建，我们预计公司 2019-2021 年归母净利分别为 17.21 亿、17.29 亿和 17.41 亿元。19 年业绩弹性较大，且在国家级城市群建设的带 动下，中期水泥需求持续性有保证。
绝对估值和相对估值依旧被严重低估 我们自 18 年持续提示西部水泥估值存在修复空间，建议重视绝对收益的中长 线投资者积极关注，近期公司股价表现靓丽，但从绝对及相对估值的角度，公 司股价依旧被严重低估。我们测算公司合理的股权价值为 100.49 亿元，较现 值有 34%的上升空间。从相对估值的角度来看，2019/7/12 日收盘价对应 2019E 的 PE 为 3.9X，PB 为 0.77X，吨 EV567 元，在水泥股中被绝对低估。
我们的观点 牵制估值修复的原因是分红，我们预计 19 年经营性现金流入 20 亿，可完全覆 盖资本开支及计划净还债，公司分红比例有望提高至行业平均水平。从中期角 度，未来 3-5 年，公司计划 30 亿资本开支，而后资本开支将进入下行通道， 分红中枢有望稳步提升，提升公司价值。我们维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价 1.73 港元。
风险提示：经济基本面恶化、行业协同破裂、原材料价格大幅波动、信贷风险、 股权纷争风险、民企治理风险
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
