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新加坡大华继显首次覆盖正荣地产(06158.HK)给以买入评级
格隆汇 07-15 09:51

7月12日,新加坡大华继显发布正荣地产(06158.HK)首次覆盖研报,研报认为:截止2018年,正荣地产集团于6大城市群 – 长三角、环渤海、中部、西部、海峡西岸及大湾区进行业务投资,一共拥有145个项目,土地储备建筑面积2,456万平方米。公司于2018年于香港上市,其主要增长动力来自销售高增长、充裕及成本低土储及持续扩张的融资通道。

销售高增长

于2018年,正荣地产除了积极深耕长三角区及海峡西岸区,公司也积极在中西部、环渤海及大湾区进行业务布局。至今,公司于六大区域的布局已基本形成,其中超过80%的销售贡献来自1、2线城市。正荣地产于2018年实现合约销售人民币1,080亿元,按年增长54%。其中,来自长三角及海峡西岸的销售占比分别为53%及26%。公司于2019年的销售目标为人民币1,300亿元,按年增长20%。于2019年上半年,公司实现合约销售人民币586亿元。

充裕及成本低的土储

于2018年,正荣于23个城市新增57个项目,新增土地储备建筑面积约1,114万平方米。截止2018年底,公司拥有145个项目,总土地储备面积为2,456万平方米,权益土地储备为1,298万平方米(权益比例为53%),总货值约人民币4,200亿,平均每平方米土地成本约人民币4,491元,占2018年销售均价约27%。土地储备成本优势将为正荣未来盈利提供有效确保。于2019年1至5月,正荣新增18块土地,新增土地储备建筑面积约180万平方米,预期新增货值达人民币240亿。值得关注是这些新增土储主要位于2线城市(约70%),对未来销售影响正面。

扩大融资通道

自正荣地产于2018年上市后,公司持续扩大融资通道,成功于境内、外发行数笔债券及资产支持证券。截止2018年年底,公司的总借贷按年增加人民币44亿至人民币464亿,平均融资成本为7.8%。此外,公司的净负债比率为74%,按年下降109个点子。公司的总借贷中,短债占比达51.3%。尽管公司的短债比例较高,公司持有近人民币300亿的现金。公司亦同时拥有畅通的美元债融资通道,短期融资压力也不大。由于融资通道畅顺,预期公司未来2-3年的财务结构将能大幅改善。

首次覆盖,予以买入

我们给予的目标价为每股8.37港元,较每股资产净值16.5港元折让49.3%。我们的目标价意味着2019年预测市盈率为4.5倍,有66.7%潜在上升空间。

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