安踏体育(02020.HK)高基数背景下Q2零售继续高增龙头成色越辩越明维持“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
投资要点
事件：公司公布二季度运营情况，安踏品牌二季度零售额增长10%-20%中段，上半年增长10%-20%低段；其他品牌（主要为FILA）二季度零售额增长55%-60%，上半年增长60%-65%，表现仍然强劲。
安踏品牌Q2增长提速。安踏品牌Q2较Q1增速有所提升，主要来自于：1）Q2与唯品会恢复正常合作，加之618天猫平台活动力度较往年更大，线上整体增长25%以上；2）大货线下表现优秀，增速从Q1的单位数提升到Q2的低双位数增长，明星产品如KT4系列、可口可乐联名系列反响火爆，会员活动也促进了线下门店的引流；3）安踏儿童增长依然较为强劲，Q2增速仍保持30%。从零售折扣率来看，大货和儿童仍保持在7.3折左右，与Q1持平，从库销比来看，安踏大货库销比4，儿童库销比5，维持正常周转水准。
FILA品牌高基数下仍然实现高增。二季度FILA全品牌增长接近60%，其中大货/KIDS/潮牌/线上分别增长45%/70%/300%/80%，尤其大货在高基数情况下仍然实现高增，体现品牌势能及产品吸引力强，零售折扣方面，考虑奥莱店等折扣渠道达到7.5折，环比持平，库销比亦维持在5的水平，运营稳定。除FILA外，迪桑特，KOLON，Sprandi等零售增长也表现优秀，带动非安踏品牌上半年整体增长60%-65%。
AMEASQ2将开始并表，7月将召开董事会探讨发展战略发展方向。虽然本次二季度零售运营公告中未涉及AMEAS情况，但AMEASQ2完成收购，届时将带来一次性收购费用的确认，AMEASQ2季节性经营亏损（一般二季度会出现经营亏损）也会体现在安踏报表中。7月AMEAS新董事会将进行关于未来3-5年发展战略的讨论以及其组织架构的梳理，此后有望择机与市场分享发展规划。
盈利预测与投资评级：从12年领先全行业完成零售改革，到FILA的逆势高增成为集团新增长极，再到启动国际化收购，安踏作为体育行业龙头展现出的前瞻性及行动力有目共睹，继续看好公司在运动服饰赛道的领先地位，预计19/20/21年归母净利同增27%/21%/18%至52/63/74亿元，对应PE23/19/16X，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：零售遇冷导致同店增长不及预期，展店不及预期，AMEAS发展不及预期。
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