龙光地产(03380.HK)单月销售高增长持续受益大湾区战略发展维持“买入”评级目标价15.80港元
机构：西南证券
评级：买入
目标价：15.80 港元
投资要点
事件：公司发布公告，2019年6月实现合约销售约108.6亿元，同比增长63.5%，实现合约销售面积84.9万方，合约销售单价约为人民币12687元/平方米；2019年1-6月实现合约销售额为453.1亿元，同比增长27.7%，合约销售面积为339.2万方。
上半年销售强劲增长，有望超额完成全年权益销售目标850亿元。2019年公司推盘量约为1500亿元，主要推盘城市在深圳、惠州、东莞、佛山、肇庆、珠海、中山及南宁等，根据上半年销售情况，我们预计2019年公司有望超额完成权益销售目标850亿元。
土储面积稳步增长，坚定深耕战略。2019年1-6月公司在深圳（龙华项目）、南宁（新增共计5个项目）、珠海、广州、佛山、眉山、嘉兴等城市共计拿地约11块，总规划计容建筑面积约为330.4万方，拿地总价约为217.8亿元，楼面均价约为6408元/平方米。6月24日，公司以65.85亿成功竞得深圳龙华区优质地块，该项目紧邻深圳龙光·玖钻项目、地铁4号线及深圳北站，地块总建面超20万平米。公司坚定看好大湾区尤其是深圳的发展前景，并将继续深耕战略多元化拿地，此次拿地将有助于提升公司在深圳的市场份额，同时公司将继续坚持在深圳打造品牌，高标准开发，把该地块打造成区域标杆项目。
土储在大湾区具备先发优势，粤港澳发展规划长期利好公司发展。公司前瞻布局大湾区，截至2018年末土储货值约为6520亿元，其中超过80%的土储位于大湾区，基本实现大湾区9+2城市群全覆盖，是湾区城市群战略发展的核心受益标的，从集中度来看公司在TOP50房企里面占比最高。7月5日，广东省委、省政府印发《关于贯彻落实〈粤港澳大湾区发展规划纲要〉的实施意见》和《广东省推进粤港澳大湾区建设三年行动计划(2018-2020年)》，两项文件的出台为大湾区发展战略提供保障，我们认为，未来大湾区九市的房地产市场将获得更为持久的支撑，城市协同发展趋势明朗，人口流动将更趋频繁，中心城市房价体系的联动性将更趋明显。
盈利预测与评级：预计公司19/20/21年EPS分别为人民币1.99/2.60/3.24元，对应的动态市盈率为5.7/4.4/3.5倍。我们给予公司2019年7倍PE估值，对应目标价15.80港元，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示：销售或不及预期，粤港澳大湾区落地不及预期。
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