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汇丰环球资管经济衰退属过虑续看好新兴市场及中国股市
阿思达克 07-10 15:06

汇丰环球投资管理的数据显示,截至今年5月,全球经济增速减慢至2.58%,而经济增长放缓再度引发市场对经济衰退的忧虑,该行亚太区投资总监及环球策略总监马浩德认为,忧虑未免言过其实,目前环球经济增长合理、企业基础稳健、货币政策有利。种种因素相加,意味着经济衰退较可能成为2021年或之後的风险,作为投资者,该行依然偏好风险资产,并将继续在具吸引力估值的固定收益及环球股市中物色投资机遇。

马浩德认为,环球经济增长合理,加上通胀偏软,意味各央行不太可能采取紧缩政策,美国联储局已经转变取态为更宽松的货币政策,而欧洲央行及其他成熟国家与新兴市场的央行亦先後采取了宽松立场,该行估计,今年下半年全球通胀将继续走低,而各地政策制定者将重点关注周期稳定性。

他相信新兴市场具增长潜力,而在中国经济续见起色的带动下,新兴经济体亦似正在复苏,随着地缘政治问题及宏观经济忧虑等逐步消退,加上市场调整後的估值偏低,全球股票积累的潜在价值将得以释放,由於企业盈利能力持续靠稳,该行对股市依然持乐观的态度,看好风险资产特别是股票。他相信,亚洲可脱颖而出,另外亦预期中国股市下半年可继续带来理想回报,且升势有望延续至下一年。而贸易战方面,他则相信当局可透过实行灵活的财政及货币政策,在经济过热与提振经济之间取得良好平衡。

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