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匯豐環球資管經濟衰退屬過慮續看好新興市場及中國股市
阿思達克 07-10 15:06

匯豐環球投資管理的數據顯示,截至今年5月,全球經濟增速減慢至2.58%,而經濟增長放緩再度引發市場對經濟衰退的憂慮,該行亞太區投資總監及環球策略總監馬浩德認為,憂慮未免言過其實,目前環球經濟增長合理、企業基礎穩健、貨幣政策有利。種種因素相加,意味著經濟衰退較可能成為2021年或之後的風險,作為投資者,該行依然偏好風險資產,並將繼續在具吸引力估值的固定收益及環球股市中物色投資機遇。

馬浩德認為,環球經濟增長合理,加上通脹偏軟,意味各央行不太可能採取緊縮政策,美國聯儲局已經轉變取態為更寬鬆的貨幣政策,而歐洲央行及其他成熟國家與新興市場的央行亦先後採取了寬鬆立場,該行估計,今年下半年全球通脹將繼續走低,而各地政策制定者將重點關注周期穩定性。

他相信新興市場具增長潛力,而在中國經濟續見起色的帶動下,新興經濟體亦似正在復甦,隨著地緣政治問題及宏觀經濟憂慮等逐步消退,加上市場調整後的估值偏低,全球股票積累的潛在價值將得以釋放,由於企業盈利能力持續靠穩,該行對股市依然持樂觀的態度,看好風險資產特別是股票。他相信,亞洲可脫穎而出,另外亦預期中國股市下半年可繼續帶來理想回報,且升勢有望延續至下一年。而貿易戰方面,他則相信當局可透過實行靈活的財政及貨幣政策,在經濟過熱與提振經濟之間取得良好平衡。

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