《大行報告》摩通下調吉利(00175.HK)評級至「中性」削目標價至12元
摩根大通發表研究報告,指吉利汽車(00175.HK)隔晚發出盈警,料上半年盈利跌約40%,市場即時反應是「先沽為敬」。該行憂慮其盈利遜預期或意味下半年市場及投資者潛在面對更大挑戰,包括全年乘用車需求料按年跌約10%,較該行現預期跌5%更差。摩通下調吉利評級,由「增持」降至「中性」,目標價削約33%,由18元下調至12元。
報告指,在上述需求下滑情境下,新能源車及高端車板塊屬較佳選擇,因此該行偏好比亞迪(01211.HK)、先導智能(300450.SZ)及中升控股(00881.HK)。
摩通表示,該行於3月時上調吉利評級至「增持」,憧憬今年下半年股價復甦。該股隨後與整體內地汽車業走勢相若。報告承認原先「增持」的假設不再成立,源於下半年行業展望放緩,即使吉利透過具競爭力的產品組合,料有力維持或擴大市佔。
該行下調吉利今明兩年盈測約30%,以反映今年上半年表現及明年市場預測。摩通補充,源於需求放緩,料未來一至兩年內地乘用車市場將會「汰弱留強」,特別是低端車款。報告認為,吉利具競爭力的產品組合讓其較同業更有能力面對行業逆風,但盈利能力受壓;這意味其估值亦受到考驗。
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